baozi v4.6: the complete guide to prediction markets
the definitive resource for creating markets, placing bets, earning affiliate fees, and building your prediction market empire on solana.
what is baozi?
baozi is a prediction market protocol on solana where you bet on real-world outcomes. unlike polymarket where you trade shares against other traders, baozi uses parimutuel betting - everyone bets into a shared pool, and winners split the entire pot proportionally based on their stake.
this means no order books, no matching engines, no slippage on large bets. you bet, you wait for the outcome, and if you're right, you get your share of the losing side's money automatically.
0.01 SOL
min bet
2%
platform fee
instant
settlement
100%
on-chain
who is baozi for?
baozi serves different users in different ways. find your archetype below to understand which features matter most to you.
the sports bettor
you follow sports religiously and have opinions on every game. you're tired of sportsbooks with complex odds, slow payouts, and identity verification.
how you use baozi: bet on NBA, NFL, UFC, and more with simple YES/NO markets. no KYC, instant SOL payouts, and odds that make sense at a glance.
the content creator
you create content on youtube, twitter, tiktok, or twitch. you have an audience that trusts your opinions, especially on crypto, gaming, or sports.
how you use baozi: earn passive income forever from your audience. share your referral link once, and every bet they ever make puts SOL in your wallet. no sales required - just share and earn.
the friend group leader
you're the one who organizes fantasy leagues, poker nights, and friendly wagers. you want to make betting with friends easy without awkward IOUs or chasing payments.
how you use baozi: create private tables for your crew with access codes. everyone puts real SOL on the line, smart contracts handle the payouts, and no one has to be the bank.
the market entrepreneur
you follow major events closely - award shows, tournaments, chart releases. you know what people want to bet on before markets exist.
how you use baozi: create markets on verifiable outcomes: award winners, chart positions, tournament results. earn creator fees from every bet. build reputation and compound earnings over time.
the community manager
you run a discord server, telegram group, or online community. you're always looking for engagement tools that aren't just giveaways and memes.
how you use baozi: use prediction markets as community engagement. create markets about events your community cares about. private tables for exclusive members. affiliate links for revenue sharing.
the crypto native
you've used polymarket, manifold, and other prediction markets. you understand odds, probability, and market dynamics. you're looking for better UX and fairer mechanics.
how you use baozi: parimutuel betting eliminates the problems of order book markets - no market makers taking your edge, no manipulation, true peer-to-pool betting with instant settlement on solana.
1. how parimutuel betting actually works
parimutuel betting is the system used by horse racing tracks worldwide since the 1800s. it's battle-tested, mathematically fair, and eliminates the need for a bookmaker to set odds. here's why it matters for you.
the problem with traditional betting
in traditional sportsbooks, the house sets the odds. they build in a margin (the "vig" or "juice") that guarantees they profit regardless of the outcome. you're betting against the house, and the house always has an edge. even if you win, you're winning less than a fair market would pay.
in order book prediction markets (like polymarket), you're trading shares against other traders. this sounds fair, but creates new problems: market makers extract value, large orders move the price against you (slippage), and you might not find a counterparty for your bet at all.
how parimutuel solves this
in parimutuel betting, all bets go into a shared pool. the platform takes a small fee (2% on baozi), and the rest is distributed to winners proportionally. there's no house edge on the odds themselves - the odds are determined purely by how other bettors allocate their money.
your potential payout formula:
payout = (your_bet / total_winning_bets) × total_pool × (1 - platform_fee)
real example with numbers
let's say there's a market: "will bitcoin hit $150k by december 31?"
if you bet 1 SOL on YES and win:
• your share of YES pool: 1/75 = 1.33%
• total pool after 2% fee: 98 SOL
• your payout: 98 × 0.0133 = 1.31 SOL
• profit: +0.31 SOL (31% return)
if you bet 1 SOL on NO and win:
• your share of NO pool: 1/25 = 4%
• total pool after 2% fee: 98 SOL
• your payout: 98 × 0.04 = 3.92 SOL
• profit: +2.92 SOL (292% return)
key insight for bettors
because odds change as more bets come in, there's an advantage to betting early when you have strong conviction. if you bet on NO at 25% implied probability and more people pile into NO later, your expected payout decreases. early bettors who are right get rewarded more.
instant settlement
the moment outcome is declared, your winnings are claimable. no waiting, no disputes.
dynamic odds
odds adjust in real-time as bets come in. you always see the current true market sentiment.
no counterparty risk
you're betting against the pool, not individuals. no one can default or refuse to pay.
the baozi market philosophy
parimutuel betting only works when markets are fair and manipulation-resistant. that's why baozi has strict rules about what markets are allowed:
we bet on big events
- • major sports leagues (NBA, NFL, UFC, F1)
- • tier-1 esports (LoL Worlds, CS2 Majors)
- • official award ceremonies (Oscars, Grammys)
- • major charts (Billboard, Spotify, Netflix)
- • large-cap crypto snapshots (24h buffer)
we never bet on
- • social media metrics (likes, views, followers)
- • individual-controlled events
- • open-ended questions with no fixed time
- • small streamers or personal challenges
- • anything that can be cheaply manipulated
the test: can a single person (or small group) influence the outcome for less than $100k? if yes, the market is banned. we bet on outcomes determined by millions, not individuals.
2. community labs: create your own markets/labs
community labs is where prediction markets get democratized. instead of waiting for a platform to create a market on something you care about, you create it yourself. you become the market maker.
why create a lab market?
you have unique insight
maybe you follow a specific esports league, upcoming award show, or chart release closely. you know what's happening before mainstream markets exist for it. create the market first, bet on it, and profit from being early.
you want to earn creator fees
every bet placed in your market generates platform fees. as the creator, you receive a portion of those fees. high-volume markets on popular topics can generate meaningful passive income throughout their lifespan.
you want to drive engagement
if you run a community, prediction markets are incredible engagement tools. your members compete not just with opinions but with real money on the line. it creates investment, discussion, and retention.
you see a content opportunity
create a market, share it on twitter, and watch your followers engage. prediction markets are inherently shareable - people love showing their conviction publicly. each share is free marketing for your brand.
how to create a successful lab market
choose the right question
your question must have a definitive, verifiable YES or NO outcome at a specific time. avoid subjective questions like 'was the movie good?' - use objective questions like 'will the movie gross $100M opening weekend?'
set the right timing
closing time is when betting stops. this should be before the outcome could possibly be known. if you're betting on an award show, close betting before the ceremony starts, not when the winner is announced.
write a clear description
ambiguity kills markets. specify exactly what counts as YES and NO. include the verification source (official website, news outlet, etc.). users bet more confidently when resolution criteria are crystal clear.
seed initial liquidity
markets with zero bets look dead. place a small bet yourself (on whichever side you believe) to show the market is active. this psychological trigger matters more than you'd think.
promote your market
share on twitter, telegram, discord, wherever your audience lives. tag relevant accounts. time your promotion when the topic is trending. the more eyeballs, the more volume, the more fees.
resolve honestly and promptly
your reputation is your asset. resolve the moment the outcome is known, not a day later. resolve correctly even if it means you lose your own bet. users remember trustworthy creators and return to their markets.
lab market ideas by category
all markets must have a fixed outcome time, be verifiable from official sources, and not be manipulable by individuals.
charts & rankings
- • Billboard Hot 100: will Song X debut top 10 on chart dated Jan 15?
- • Spotify: will Artist X have #1 weekly streams for week of Feb 1?
- • Netflix Top 10: will Series X rank #1 week of Jan 20?
- • Steam: will Game X top weekly downloads chart?
esports tournaments
- • LoL Worlds 2025 Final: will T1 win the championship?
- • CS2 Major Grand Final: will the series go to map 5?
- • Valorant Champions: will Team X win their semifinal match?
- • Dota TI Finals: will the match exceed 45 minutes?
award ceremonies
- • Oscars 2026: will Film X win Best Picture?
- • Grammys: will Artist X win Album of the Year?
- • Game Awards: will Game X win GOTY?
- • Golden Globes: will Actor X win Best Drama Actor?
crypto price snapshots
- • BTC > $120k at Jan 1 2026 00:00 UTC? (closes 24h early)
- • ETH > $5k at Feb 1 2026 00:00 UTC? (closes 24h early)
- • SOL > $300 at Mar 1 2026 00:00 UTC? (closes 24h early)
- • note: only large-cap assets, 24h buffer required
markets NOT allowed
these fail our manipulation or information tests:
lab market economics
example: if your market gets 10 SOL total volume, platform takes 0.20 SOL in fees. if you get 25% creator share, that's 0.05 SOL earned from a single market.
3. private tables: invite-only prediction markets/private
public markets are great, but sometimes you want to bet with a specific group of people. your fantasy football league. your crypto trading group. your friends who watch the same shows. private tables let you create invite-only markets that only people with the access code can see or bet on.
the pain of betting with friends (and how private tables solve it)
the old way
you make a bet with friends. someone has to be the bank. venmo or cash app payments get forgotten. disputes arise about what the bet actually was. losers take forever to pay. winners feel awkward chasing friends for money. the whole thing is uncomfortable and often falls apart.
with private tables
create a market, share the access code with your group. everyone bets with real SOL locked in a smart contract. when the outcome happens, you resolve it, and winners get paid automatically. no chasing payments. no awkwardness. no one holding funds. just clean, trustless betting with friends.
private tables vs public labs
| Feature | Private Table | Lab Market |
|---|---|---|
| discovery | hidden, code required | public, browsable |
| who can bet | only code holders | anyone with SOL |
| pool size | unlimited | 10 SOL max |
| best use case | friend groups, communities | public engagement |
| creator earnings | yes, same as labs | yes |
perfect use cases for private tables
fantasy sports leagues
scenario: your 12-person fantasy football league wants to add side bets. who wins this week's matchup? who gets most points? weekly prop bets.
how it works: create a private table for each week's side bet. share code in your league group chat. everyone bets during the week, you resolve sunday night. seamless integration with your existing league.
watch parties
scenario: you and your friends are watching a show finale, award ceremony, or fight. you want to bet on what happens.
how it works: create a private table before the event: 'who wins best picture?' share code in your group chat. everyone bets, you watch together, you resolve live when the result is announced.
trading communities
scenario: your crypto trading discord has strong opinions on price movements. people post predictions but there's no skin in the game.
how it works: create private tables for specific price snapshots: 'BTC > $100k at Jan 1 00:00 UTC?' (closes 24h early). your community members bet their conviction on a fixed outcome time.
office pools
scenario: your team wants to bet on march madness final four, super bowl winner, or world cup champion.
how it works: create a private table for each tournament outcome. share access code via slack. SOL-based betting means no one holds the pot. smart contract pays winners instantly after the final game.
game night bets
scenario: you're watching a playoff game with friends: 'will the Lakers win tonight's game vs Celtics?' you want stakes on the outcome.
how it works: create a private table for the specific game. both sides bet. market closes before tipoff. winner determined by final score. instant, trustless settlement.
how access codes work
when you create a private table, you get a unique access code. this code is the only way to find and bet on your market. share it however you want - group chats, DMs, discord channels. anyone with the code can join, anyone without it can't even see the market exists.
you can also lock the code after your group has joined, preventing the code from spreading beyond your intended circle. perfect for exclusive communities.
4. affiliate program: earn SOL for life/affiliate
the baozi affiliate program is designed for content creators, influencers, and community leaders who want to earn passive income from their audience. share your referral link once, and earn a percentage of every bet your referrals ever make. not just once - forever.
why the affiliate program is different
typical affiliate programs
most affiliate programs give you a one-time bonus when someone signs up. maybe $10, maybe $50. after that, you get nothing. the platform captured the user you sent them, and you're done. you have to constantly find new users just to maintain income.
baozi affiliates
when someone clicks your referral link and connects their wallet, they're linked to you permanently (on-chain, verifiable). every single bet they make, for as long as they use baozi, you earn 10% of the platform fee. if they bet 100 SOL total over a year and the platform takes 2 SOL in fees, you get 0.20 SOL. multiply by all your referrals, forever.
how affiliate earnings compound
let's run realistic numbers for a content creator with modest reach:
month 1: building
• you share your link in 3 videos and a few tweets
• 25 people sign up through your link
• average bettor bets 5 SOL total in month 1
• total volume: 125 SOL × 2% fees = 2.5 SOL fees
• your 10% cut: 0.25 SOL
month 6: growing
• you now have 150 referrals (25 new per month)
• regulars are betting more, average 10 SOL/month
• total monthly volume: 1,500 SOL × 2% = 30 SOL fees
• your 10% cut: 3 SOL/month
year 1: established
• 300+ referrals acquired over the year
• active bettors average 15 SOL/month
• 60% retention rate (180 active monthly)
• monthly volume: 2,700 SOL × 2% = 54 SOL fees
• your 10% cut: 5.4 SOL/month = ~$1,350/month at $250/SOL
who should use the affiliate program
crypto youtubers
you already make content about trading, DeFi, and market predictions. your audience is already in the target demo. natural fit.
10k subs → potential 50-100 referrals → 2-5 SOL/month
sports betting tipsters
you share picks on twitter or telegram. your followers trust your judgment. give them a platform to actually bet on your calls.
1k twitter followers → 20-30 referrals → 1-2 SOL/month
discord/telegram admins
you run a trading group, sports chat, or gaming community. prediction markets drive engagement. earn from existing members.
500 member server → 50-75 active referrals → 3-5 SOL/month
podcasters
you discuss predictions, sports, pop culture, or crypto. mention baozi as the place to put money on predictions.
5k downloads/ep → 30-50 referrals → 2-3 SOL/month
affiliate best practices
lifetime earnings
referral link never expires. once linked, always earning.
instant claims
withdraw any amount anytime directly to your wallet.
real-time dashboard
see every referral, every bet, every earning as it happens.
5. creator dashboard: your command center/creator
if you create markets (labs or private tables), the creator dashboard is where you manage everything. see all your markets, track their performance, resolve outcomes, and claim your creator fees.
dashboard components
creator profile
your public identity as a market creator. shows total markets created, total volume generated, resolution accuracy rate, and overall reputation score.
why it matters: users check this before betting on your markets. high reputation = more trust = more bettors.
market manager
all your active, closed, and resolved markets in one place. filter by status, type (lab vs private), or those needing action.
why it matters: never miss a market that needs resolution. see which markets are performing best.
earnings tracker
real-time view of your pending creator fees across all markets. one-click claim to send SOL directly to your wallet.
why it matters: passive income from market creation. claim anytime, no minimums.
reputation metrics
breakdown of your reputation score: how many upvotes vs downvotes, resolution speed history, and trend over time.
why it matters: understand what's working and what needs improvement. your reputation is your most valuable asset.
the reputation system explained
your reputation isn't just a vanity metric - it directly affects how many people bet on your markets. here's how it works:
community votes
primaryafter a market is resolved, every user who bet can upvote or downvote the creator. this reflects whether the community trusts your resolution. one wrong resolution can tank your reputation.
resolution speed
secondaryhow quickly you resolve markets after they close. users hate waiting. if the super bowl ends and you resolve 12 hours later, expect downvotes even if you resolved correctly.
market activity
minorhow many markets you've created, total volume across them, and consistency. helps identify serious creators vs. one-off experimenters.
reputation tiers
gold creator: top reputation tier. markets featured prominently, highest creator fee share.
silver creator: good reputation. markets show in standard listings, standard fee share.
bronze creator: building reputation. markets listed but not featured.
at risk: low reputation from bad resolutions. markets may be delisted.
how to resolve markets correctly
wait for the outcome to be official
even if you saw the result live, wait for official confirmation. sports scores get corrected, vote counts get recounted, mistakes happen.
verify from the source you specified
if your market said 'result from ESPN', use ESPN. if users bet based on that source, they expect that source to be the arbiter.
resolve immediately once certain
there's no benefit to waiting. users are refreshing, waiting to claim. every hour you delay creates frustration and potential downvotes.
use 'invalid' only when truly ambiguous
invalid resolution refunds everyone. only use it when the question itself was flawed, not when you're unsure of the answer.
6. multi-choice marketsadvanced
not every prediction is a simple YES/NO. "who will win the NBA championship?" has 30 possible answers. multi-choice markets group related YES/NO markets together so you can bet on specific outcomes in a larger question.
how multi-choice works
technically, each outcome is its own independent YES/NO market. the frontend groups them under a parent question for easier browsing. when the event concludes, one market is resolved YES and all others are resolved NO.
example: NBA Cup 2025 Champion
• market 1: "Thunder wins NBA Cup" → bet YES or NO
• market 2: "Lakers wins NBA Cup" → bet YES or NO
• market 3: "Bucks wins NBA Cup" → bet YES or NO
...16 more teams...
if Thunder wins, market 1 resolves YES (bettors on YES win). markets 2-16 resolve NO (bettors on NO win, bettors on YES lose).
strategy for multi-choice markets
betting the underdog
in multi-choice markets, underdogs often have huge payouts. if a team has only 5% of bets and wins, YES bettors split a massive pool. one correct underdog call can be a 20x return.
betting against overrated favorites
if you think a favorite is overrated, bet NO on their market. you don't need to pick the winner - you just need them to NOT win. safer play with smaller but consistent returns.
hedging across outcomes
bet YES on your top 2-3 picks with varying amounts based on confidence. even if your top pick loses, your second or third pick winning can still net positive.
current multi-choice events
7. getting started
whether you want to bet, create markets, or earn referral income, here's how to start.
get a solana wallet
phantom is the most popular (phantom.app). solflare works too. any solana wallet that connects to web apps.
fund with SOL
buy SOL on coinbase, kraken, or any exchange. send to your wallet address. you need SOL for betting and transaction fees (a few cents per bet).
connect to baozi
click 'connect wallet' on baozi.bet. approve the connection. your wallet address is now linked.
choose your path
browse markets to bet, go to /labs/create to make a market, visit /affiliate to get your referral link. you can do all three.
quick tips for new users
- • start with small bets (0.1-0.5 SOL) to learn the mechanics
- • watch how odds move as you bet - your bet changes the pool
- • claim winnings promptly after resolution (they don't expire, but why wait)
- • check creator reputation before betting on lab markets
- • bookmark /creator if you plan to make markets - you'll use it often
ready to start?
choose your entry point into baozi prediction markets